Timothy Meyer

U.S. equity outperformance and sustained dollar appreciation have led to large valuation gains for the rest of the world on the U.S. external position. I construct their global distribution, carefully accounting for the role of tax havens. Valuation gains are concentrated and large in developed countries, while developing countries have been mostly bypassed. To assess the welfare implications of these capital gains, I adopt a sufficient statistics approach. In contrast to the large wealth changes, most countries so far did not benefit much in welfare terms. This is because they did not rebalance their portfolios and realize their gains, while they were further hurt by rising import prices from the strong dollar.

This paper uses historical survey microdata to study the life-cycle wealth accumulation across U.S. birth cohorts over the last six decades. We uncover two key new trends: a marked steepening of the life-cycle wealth profile and increased dissaving among older adults. Using a theoretical model and wealth accumulation decompositions, we argue that these new trends were driven by the boom in asset prices since the 1980s: valuation gains led to higher life-cycle wealth and allowed households to increase consumption in retirement. Looking at aggregates, we find that shifts in the life-cycle wealth profile explain a large share of the increase in the aggregate wealth-income ratio. At the same time, the higher consumption by older adults is the most important force behind the decline in the aggregate saving rate since the mid-1980s.

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